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Lenticulas

What happens when a perfectly new player plays Glops?

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Posted (edited)

What happens when a perfectly new player plays Glops?
I decided to find out:

Presenting
Mr. Anonymous and the Rosomak Experiment.

I played, 120 Glops games, starting with the T7 Rosomak, and when I ran that out, bought and continued with the Rosomak M1M.
All games played by me, my skill level is the same from the start, to the end. I personally am not a new Glops player, yet this account is. So improving skill is pretty much removed as a factor.

All games were played, with a fresh dump character, so I have no MM "stats" to affect the outcome - the game didn't know me.
This character has only played about 10 games of glops EVER before this experiment, l long time ago.

At game 74 I finished the normal Rosomak and bought the Rosomak M1M. I upgraded stuff as i went along, I didn't free-Xp any modules, or play any other games but Glops in these 2 vehicles.

I then drew a chart of the wins and losses: up-one, for a win, down-one for a loss, in a wiggly line.
to see if the losses went up or down over time, stayed the same, changed, whatever, and here it is.


So the question was: what will happen?
I imagined I'd start, win a few - lose a few, and the graph would progress in a wiggly line, but broadly in a slope reflecting my normal winrate.


Really?
Apparently the "MatchMaker" had something rather different planned ...

 

rosochart3.thumb.png.fd460316ec5cd0ef7e41c7ff05cc1e6c.png

 

Edited by Lenticulas (see edit history)

"Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth."

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Posted (edited)

And to add some description to it. 

Also, no platooning or deliberate sabotage or anything, just trying to win.

On the way up

To start off, I just couldn't lose. People seemed to know what to do, proceeded straight to the cap, captured it, move on, etc. Sometime I did well, sometimes I did badly, it made no difference at all.  Loads of platoons on my side only. Everything good 

60% Winrate - I'm a tanking GOD!

In short.  Always on the "good team"  

And then at 55 games, the MM flipped to the exact opposite, as completely, and mechanically as if someone flipped a switch.  

On the way down

No one seemed to know what to do, people wandered off to random places, I wondered sometimes if there were really 10 people on my team at all, I actually had to count the dots on the map, they seemed to just not to be there at all. Loss after loss after loss, no way I could have done anything about it.  80% of platoon advantage, ie when only one team has one, was NOW on the red team.

In short.  Always on the "moron team" 

back to "normal"

Then even after switching to the other next Rosomak, the shit continued.  Until my Winrate was slammed down to 52.5% exactly.

At that point, normal teams, normal games, some good, some bad. The line now moved on exactly as I first thought: a wiggly line, some up, some down, roughly in line with my normal Winrate. 

Rigged as fuck

Edited by Lenticulas
Bite me (see edit history)

"Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth."

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58 minutes ago, Lenticulas said:

Rigged as fuck

A bold claim considering your dataset only contains ~120 battles of a single player spread among two different vehicles.

Let's assume the game is rigged and tries to push your winrate to average by matching you bad players constantly/by matching you good players constantly (to increase your WR when it's below average):

In this case there are two issues I see that do not suggest the game is rigged in any way:

  • There are people with very high winrates in GLOPS (70-85%). Of course this is only manageable if you use triple platoons constantly with meta vehicles. However, if the system really was rigged such players/platoons of above average WR players would get punished severely by the MM (There are certainly enough bot-like GLOPS players in the queue at all times). In this case even a 3man platoon of such players has very little chance of success. In this case players with such high winrates should not exist, but they do. The same goes the other way around if you're a bot-player. Of course this is an extreme situation but if such a system was active it would be way harder to get very high/low winrates.
  • I fail to see what benefit such a system would have in general. Why would the devs bother with implementing it when there's no reason to do so.
  • Upvote 1

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fdassdaas.jpg.c709df3e98adc5265f232fe9458a3043.jpg

 

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Posted (edited)

before i forget:
Platoon Advantage before and after 55 .... (i.e. one team has a platoon, the other does not)
Platoon advantage games 0-55: us 11, them 9, = 50/50 pretty much
Platoon advantage games 56-95, us 3, them 13 = bend over, and start praying

Also, I have screenshots of all the games, just in case.

 

On 8/15/2020 at 12:20 AM, LeoAegisMaximus said:

were these games played sequentially? or over a similar time period? 

I played games, basically randomly. A few each day, some Saturday, some Sunday, most 2, or 3 or 4 at a time, on weekday early evenings. I made no effort to play at exact times/days, just in case I ended up running into the same people all the time.

 

NOTE:
I wasn't even trying to discover this, at all.
My original plan was to see if there was a difference between: me playing Rosomak on a clean account vs. me playing Rosomak on my usual account.
And I wrote the chart out, and looked at it and said "what the fuck??!"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The weirdest thing was the wins, every 3 games or so, from 55 games on down.
The losses were 700 points, 400 points, etc, but the wins when I got them, or rather when I was given one were apocalyptic slaughters, 1700+ point sometimes over 2000!

It's as though something had been arranged, to soften the blow of constant losses, an occasional win had to be ensured. Just so the experience wasn't totally without hope, just to make it look like you "had a chance".

What I think happened is Mr Anonymous had no stats, by definition, at the start, having never played glops before. Also it would be unfair to punish some guy wou had played 2 games, randomly won them, and now has a 100% win rate. . If you have 1000 games, you'd have a win% that's an effective measure of your skill, and can be used for balancing. So, therefore at some point between 0 and 1000, the system would say you now have "stats".
I played 10 games of glops on this acc before, so that makes the actual total about 65, for your stats to count?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On 8/14/2020 at 9:04 PM, TeyKey1 said:

There are people with very high winrates in GLOPS (70-85%)

As for players with great win rates, I absolutely know they exist. And I'm not denying that maybe it's pure skill. I also think that a great deal of it, is all the other advantages you can get for yourself. That you listed. The best glops player i've seen had about 60% over 12,000 games.

There's: Skill. Being in a platoon and fighting in a coordinated manner. Having voice communication. Getting OPhelia. Always driving notedly OP, and/or Premium tanks (that we now know, ALL have premium matchmaking). More on this last option later.

I believe that even if you don't really have the skill, or just a reasonably decent amount of skill, if you add up all these other advantages, you can break through the %limit.

Of course when you have really skilled players... what do you almost ALWAYS see them driving?
In a platoon, fighting in a coordinated manner, most with OPhelia. Always driving notedly OP, and/or Premium tanks, and I bet you 1000g, they have voice comms as well.

As for balancing them, when you have a 3man [A1arM] platoon, all with the other advantages listed, they are 30% of a 10 vs. 10 team... IMHO there isn't ANYTHING that the balancing can do, to cope with that.

 

On 8/14/2020 at 9:04 PM, TeyKey1 said:

I fail to see what benefit such a system would have in general

Why would they do it?
In the beginning there was SIMM. There were reasons for having it, and they would apply here.
Also, my guess is as follows:

On having a lower limit, i.e. making sure people don't lose too many matches, that helps with player retention. In other words: players that lose all the time, quit. If players can't lose more than certain %, it keeps them interested, it gives them hope.

On having an upper limit, that's easy.
It's game monetisation 101. You introduce some sort of unnecessary grind, or handicap, or limit, or annoyance, and at the same time, you offer players the chance to avoid it, by paying.

All those premiums (that you buy) are pretty OP, IMHO. Ophelia, who you buy, is totally pay to win, I think we can agree. And, oh the irony! isn't the CATTB going on sale soon....

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunately, the logical fallout from this; puts me and my other, real account; in a very difficult position. I'm also permanently stuck up on the Glass Ceiling of 52.5% ...

My only way out of this now, is to buy my way to a better winrate. Which proves nothing. Me winning more in an op tank, is still just me. My wins are just paid for.
If I play a brilliant match (for me), and win as a lone player, all it's going to get me, is being forced to eat an quivalent amount of losses, by deliberately being put in unwinnable matches.

That's a pretty bleak outlook. ... I did not want to know this, and I would much rather NOT think that's how things are.

 

 

EDIT:

and one last thing, and i know I'm cherry-picking the ranges a bit, but whatever, just for fun with no statistical rigour whatsoever:

on the way up, the chances of getting more than 18 losses, in 54 matches is 99%
on the way down, the chances of getting more than 11 wins, in 39 matches is 99.53% ... (if i've counted it right this time)

0.01 x 0.0047 = 0.000047, so the odds of those 2 ridiculously unlikely events, happening one after the other, are 1: 21,276


So, fuck it AW.

& UNINSTALLED

 

Edited by Lenticulas (see edit history)

"Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth."

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Posted (edited)

I have only played 10 Glops matches in 5 years for a 40% win rate, will try and play some more to see if i even out my winrate,  

Edit, if i can get battles, GMT + 10 isn't the best time zone for Euro games, 

Edited by Travlla (see edit history)


 

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Posted (edited)

and another thing, while i remember,

I looked though all my written down games for my main account (492!), found all the Platoon Advantage games (i.e. one team has a platoon, the other does not)

out of 265 total games where this occurred
Platoon advantage:
us: 113
them: 152

the chances of getting more platoons on my side than this, if it's a 50/50 chance which side the MM puts them on: 99.02%

 

from: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

now i'm off to play Witcher.

Edited by Lenticulas (see edit history)

"Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth."

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On 8/16/2020 at 7:11 AM, Lenticulas said:

As for players with great win rates, I absolutely know they exist. And I'm not denying that maybe it's pure skill.

Yesterday dialed in for some GLOPS and my ragtag team was paired against a [LABS] platoon featuring Demigod and others... Needless to say, we were decimated from the beginning and barely got 1 cap the whole match. So skill does count for a lot. :-)

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Posted (edited)

[deleted]

Edited by Lenticulas (see edit history)

"Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth."

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Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.78bc4694667d810448b569cc858ddd75.png

This is the game in question. None of us were running OPhelia and our vehicles can't really be called completely OP. 

Also ignore me TKing, I blame autolocking ATGMs.

Edited by Bob_Magilica (see edit history)

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On 8/17/2020 at 11:26 AM, Quantum_Ranger said:

Yesterday dialed in for some GLOPS and my ragtag team was paired against a [LABS] platoon featuring Demigod and others... Needless to say, we were decimated from the beginning and barely got 1 cap the whole match. So skill does count for a lot. :-)

Not to offend anyone in [LABS], but there are far more fearsome battalions/platoons which you may encounter.

A1arM being the most obvious one, NASTY, COBET, and PAND being some others. Then there are some common hardcore platoons, such as @Flavio93Zena and his various stet pedder acquaintances ;)

PS: Pineapple on pizza is great, fite me about it bruv.

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5 hours ago, di_duncan said:

Not to offend anyone in [LABS], but there are far more fearsome battalions/platoons which you may encounter.

I don't think you offend anyone with that. Most people in LABS know they are not the best in the game, but still pretty decent. (And some people can't take compliments...)

That said, in my experience RusTD often also has pretty decent to good players. However, this might just be my experience. And of course the special mention to COOP (when they play glops) 

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12 hours ago, di_duncan said:

Not to offend anyone in [LABS], but there are far more fearsome battalions/platoons which you may encounter.

A1arM being the most obvious one, NASTY, COBET, and PAND being some others. Then there are some common hardcore platoons, such as @Flavio93Zena and his various stet pedder acquaintances ;)

LUL, in that screenshot pretty much nobody had a good game other than GIGGOLO, incidentally from NASTY. Don't know him even though it's confusing because many of our guys changed usernames and it's kinda messy.

12 hours ago, di_duncan said:

PS: Pineapple on pizza is great, fite me about it bruv.

I fokin will.

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19 hours ago, Bob_Magilica said:

I was on track to having a good game until I accidentally TKed I swear.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/20/2020 at 3:56 AM, itzjustrick said:

I don't think you offend anyone with that. Most people in LABS know they are not the best in the game, but still pretty decent. (And some people can't take compliments...)

That said, in my experience RusTD often also has pretty decent to good players. However, this might just be my experience. And of course the special mention to COOP (when they play glops) 

REEEEEEE XD

 

Edited by Tired_needs_Nrg_Drinks (see edit history)

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Posted (edited)

Got sidetracked a bit but there's far too much conspiracy theory around here, really. @Lenticulas
I guess I'm bending the odds? :classic_ninja:

ScreenShot2491.jpg

There's a LOT to the matchmaker that you need to know if you want to attempt these things. First and foremost, for example, no camping unarmored tds because unless you get a Wilk on Grindelwald (with someone who REALLY knows how to play it and can do 25k dmg with no bomber) you put your team at a disadvantage, since it gets matched against T15s.
Then... No crap tanks. Leo, Type 99, Type 99 140, Merkava, XM1A3. They get matched vs anything, that can also be a full CATTB platoon, and then you'd be like "Damn", but it's your own fault for picking a crap one in the first place. If you don't own it, T4 is a progression one and amazing with Ophelia and Defense ability, side armor brushes off T15 missiles even.
Scouts... Sphinx is garbage because of the missile bug. Shadow is... Incredibly situational, a good player or platoon will nuke it though. Kornet can be extremely deadly but situational as well, it will suck quite hard on Narrows for instance.
TDs... Once again, no unarmored TD. Ffs. No. MGM, Cent 120, Draco, Wilk... They all get matched against a T15. Except a T15 can push into cap and defend it on its own with armor/firepower/hp, something a Wilk can't do.

I'm sometimes in comms and sometimes not, with one of the platoonmates and not the other one, very rarely with both.
Winning may also require strong brain usage... One of those PL01 games we won by 7 points, because I had my blood cold enough to stop myself going for a suicidal reset, which would have removed 25 points from our team. That's right, I let them cap on purpose and remained alive, so we wouldn't lose 25 points and we won by 7. Being a damage whore, I almost felt actual pain in not rushing in, but it was the correct decision.

All of the above, a new player just simply has no idea about. And there's a lot more, but that's the basics.

Edited by Flavio93Zena
More stuff added (see edit history)
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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Flavio93Zena said:

I guess I'm bending the odds?

Yes that errrr.... was what I was saying, yes:

On 8/16/2020 at 1:11 PM, Lenticulas said:

... if you add up all these other advantages, you can break through the %limit.

Of course when you have really skilled players... what do you almost ALWAYS see them driving?
In a platoon, fighting in a coordinated manner, most with OPhelia. Always driving notedly OP, and/or Premium tanks, and I bet you 1000g, they have voice comms as well.

As for balancing them, when you have a 3man [A1arM] platoon, all with the other advantages listed, they are 30% of a 10 vs. 10 team... IMHO there isn't ANYTHING that the balancing can do, to cope with that.

Actually, since you are here, @Flavio93Zena can I ask you a question? Now's my chance to ask a good player !

When you are platooning, what does the MM try to put on the other team?

What I mean is, out of those games above, for example, if you are in a 3-platoon, are you always vs. A platoon?  2x2 man Platoons? , 1x3, 3x3? What's the ratio? What happens?

Edited by Lenticulas (see edit history)

"Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth."

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13 hours ago, Flavio93Zena said:

One of those PL01 games we won by 7 points, because I had my blood cold enough to stop myself going for a suicidal reset, which would have removed 25 points from our team. That's right, I let them cap on purpose and remained alive, so we wouldn't lose 25 points and we won by 7. Being a damage whore, I almost felt actual pain in not rushing in, but it was the correct decision.

Such decisions can have quite the impact on the outcome of a battle. Especially in GLOPS I often see players misplacing crucial airstrikes or die at the end of very close game or not defending a crucial cap to gain time for the approaching allies and lose the battle as a consequence. Situational awareness of a single decent player can make a huge difference in certain situations.

6 hours ago, Lenticulas said:

As for balancing them, when you have a 3man [A1arM] platoon, all with the other advantages listed, they are 30% of a 10 vs. 10 team... IMHO there isn't ANYTHING that the balancing can do, to cope with that.

Why would it not be able to rig it that way to make the A1arM guys loose? I'm quite certain there are plenty of bad players available to compensate those guys, if the MM really worked that way. If you get a team full of idiots with no clue what they're doing there is very little a 3man platoon with skilled players, OP vehicles and communication can do. There definitely are such battles where you get a complete garbage team. In such situations there is very little you can do about, even if you're an excellent player. At some point you just reach the limit of your abilities to carry such teams.

However, if the MM really was rigged I doubt win-streaks like the one Flavio just posted were possible. Players like Flavio would be severely punished by the MM, which I doubt is the case.

Even I as a solo player am able to pull off win streaks of ~10 battles, if I play well enough and have a bit of luck with the teams I get matched. On the other hand I can get the same streak with losses.

Clearly, the MM does not always match a fair game but I fail to see any pattern or system that would suggest it's rigged to flatten the WR of players


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9 hours ago, Lenticulas said:

When you are platooning, what does the MM try to put on the other team?

What I mean is, out of those games above, for example, if you are in a 3-platoon, are you always vs. A platoon?  2x2 man Platoons? , 1x3, 3x3? What's the ratio? What happens?

Pretty much F all... Sometimes it's a platoon of 3 vs 2 platoons of 3 or 2 platoons of 2 players... Other times it's a platoon vs none (especially in 10vs10 it usually means a landslide). It feels like the matchmaker does try to come up with another platoon on the enemy team but disregards the tanks that are in such groups and considers just the general idea.
During low population times it may also disregard the TIER. I've been matched against a triple tier 8 platoon and we had tier 10s... Didn't feel too bad though since they were PANZR trying to club with BMPT 2017 and alike, but imagine some random platoon with M1A2 :classic_wacko:
Anyways for example, 3x CATTB team A platoon can be matched vs 3x Wilk team B if team A has at least several TDs (disregarding which ones, can be T15 or others) and at the same time team B has some MBTs (disregarding which ones, again). In such case scenario, however, team A will have a massive advantage because CATTB firepower/capping/area denial power.
We do lose sometimes even in 10vs10 though, there are certain cases that it's completely impossible to win, which most of the times is when your teammates are total idiots not even going for capture points... A few days ago I raged badly at a guy on Narrows... First phase he goes 9 line with no caps and I'm thinking well sod it, at least we have that bit for next phase... Yet he rushes base and dies. Final phase he THEN goes to line 0 with no caps. That kind of people is the most unbelievably toxic imbecile to have on team, deliberately avoiding caps to make some kind of totally useless "flanking" play that serves no purpose whatsoever.

2 hours ago, TeyKey1 said:

Such decisions can have quite the impact on the outcome of a battle. Especially in GLOPS I often see players misplacing crucial airstrikes or die at the end of very close game or not defending a crucial cap to gain time for the approaching allies and lose the battle as a consequence. Situational awareness of a single decent player can make a huge difference in certain situations.

Oh yeah, won plenty of battles because of a perfectly placed airstrike too. Sometimes even killing a friendly that runs in as "bait" because "he will never bomb his teammate" (LUL, I'll bomb my own platoonmate if necessary :kek:).

2 hours ago, TeyKey1 said:

Why would it not be able to rig it that way to make the A1arM guys loose? I'm quite certain there are plenty of bad players available to compensate those guys, if the MM really worked that way. If you get a team full of idiots with no clue what they're doing there is very little a 3man platoon with skilled players, OP vehicles and communication can do. There definitely are such battles where you get a complete garbage team. In such situations there is very little you can do about, even if you're an excellent player. At some point you just reach the limit of your abilities to carry such teams.

Yeah you can't win them all, but you can snatch quite a lot from the jaws of defeat, that you can do.

3 hours ago, TeyKey1 said:

However, if the MM really was rigged I doubt win-streaks like the one Flavio just posted were possible. Players like Flavio would be severely punished by the MM, which I doubt is the case.

I've done I think 24 wins in a row before I got tired and closed, as my best, but yeah it definitely does involve a bit of luck with teammates. Surely I can't carry 2 disconnects all the time.

3 hours ago, TeyKey1 said:

Even I as a solo player am able to pull off win streaks of ~10 battles, if I play well enough and have a bit of luck with the teams I get matched. On the other hand I can get the same streak with losses.

Clearly, the MM does not always match a fair game but I fail to see any pattern or system that would suggest it's rigged to flatten the WR of players

I think my worst has been 3 losses in a row, with possible ragequit, but it generally gets "balanced out". Some days ago I had like a 50% session, and one of my platoonmates had a whopping 33% day (he's about 70% player too).

3 hours ago, TeyKey1 said:

Clearly, the MM does not always match a fair game but I fail to see any pattern or system that would suggest it's rigged to flatten the WR of players

I swear sometimes I do think that though :classic_rolleyes:

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flavio93Zena said:

Pretty much F all... Sometimes it's a platoon of 3 vs 2 platoons of 3 or 2 platoons of 2 players... Other times it's a platoon vs none (especially in 10vs10 it usually means a landslide). It feels like the matchmaker does try to come up with another platoon on the enemy team but disregards the tanks that are in such groups and considers just the general idea.

Could i impose on you to have a quick count of the last, 20-30 games or something?

it's ok if not, it's just me interested in this sort of thing ... :christmass_wub:

NOTE: I'm not trying to 'prove' anything against you or any skilled players, i got the platoons i got, and you got the platoons you got. It's just data :-)

Edited by Lenticulas (see edit history)

"Yog-Sothoth knows the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the gate. Yog-Sothoth is the key and guardian of the gate. Past, present, future, all are one in Yog-Sothoth."

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@Lenticulas Did you consider the TILT effect as a contributing factor ?

 

Just one of many vids on youtube explaining it

 

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