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MK_Regular

MK_Regular

On 4/5/2020 at 12:11 AM, Haswell said:

a gun that deals 600 damage per shot

And just like that, all of my DPMs for different setups are wrong. I was under the impression the gun only did 590 damage per shot, so the listed DPMs are slightly (about 1.67%) lower than the actual in-game values.

 

Also, the probability of securing a kill with the shots you have in the clip is probably one of the biggest considerations if you are thinking about using a ready rack for the burst potential. Because of the ready rack's lackluster DPM, you're going to want to minimize the number of capacity upgrades in favour of upgrades that increase RoF. I don't actually know what the probability distribution is for determining the amount of damage dealt by a damaging hit (I know the range is +/- 10% if you don't have any bonuses or modifiers), but my best guess is that it is based on a either a uniform distribution (equal chance to get any given damage number inside the +/- 10% range) or a normal distribution (probability is weighted so that extremely high/low damage rolls are rarer. In the case of a normal distribution, my best guess would be that the range of probabilities is limited to 3 standard deviations, with anything outside of the 3 standard deviations being automatically assigned to the highest/lowest damage value as if it was only 3 standard deviations above/below the mean (this should not be too noticeable, since only 0.3% of shots fired would be at least 3 standard deviations away from the mean). 

 

In the event of a uniform distribution, the equation for the amount of health H that results in a kill with X shots and Y certainty is as follows:

H = X * average damage  * (0.2 * (1 - Y) + 0.9)

For example, in order to have 95% certainty of a kill with 5 shots doing 600 damage each, the maximum amount of health the enemy can have is:

H = 5 * 600 * (0.2 * (1 - 0.95) + 0.9) = 3000 * (0.2 * 0.05 + 0.9) = 3000 * (0.01 + 0.9) = 3000 * 0.91 = 2730 health

With this in mind, a few things to note:

  • Superior Bradley will take 4 shots with 95% certainty
  • Tbolt, PL-01, K21 will all take 5 shots with 95% certainty
  • All but the weakest MBTs (and T15s) will take at least 6 shots, probably 7 (or more)

The only times were the ready rack is better than the magazine loader is when you need to deal with isolated squishy vehicles quickly. Given that the magazine loader will be able to kill heavy vehicles faster than the ready rack, and that squishy vehicles very rarely (possibly never) spawn alone, the ready rack doesn't seem like a good fit for PvE where having mediocre  sustained DPM is more valuable that mediocre burst DPM. It might do well in PvP modes where there is a better chance of running into lone squishies, but not in PvE.

 

I don't have the math for the normal distribution, and it's far too late for me to go and work it all out, so I'm going to make a promise to come back to it tomorrow soon. That said, I don't expect that more consistent damage rolls will make that much of a difference in the number of shots needed to kill common enemies, but that remains to be seen.

MK_Regular

MK_Regular

On 4/5/2020 at 12:11 AM, Haswell said:

a gun that deals 600 damage per shot

And just like that, all of my DPMs for different setups are wrong. I was under the impression the gun only did 590 damage per shot, so the listed DPMs are slightly (about 1.67%) lower than the actual in-game values.

 

Also, the probability of securing a kill with the shots you have in the clip is probably one of the biggest considerations if you are thinking about using a ready rack for the burst potential. Because of the ready rack's lackluster DPM, you're going to want to minimize the number of capacity upgrades in favour of upgrades that increase RoF. I don't actually know what the probability distribution is for determining the amount of damage dealt by a damaging hit (I know the range is +/- 10% if you don't have any bonuses or modifiers), but my best guess is that it is based on a either a uniform distribution (equal chance to get any given damage number inside the +/- 10% range) or a normal distribution (probability is weighted so that extremely high/low damage rolls are rarer. In the case of a normal distribution, my best guess would be that the range of probabilities is limited to 3 standard deviations, with anything outside of the 3 standard deviations being automatically assigned to the highest/lowest damage value as if it was only 3 standard deviations above/below the mean (this should not be too noticeable, since only 0.3% of shots fired would be at least 3 standard deviations away from the mean). 

 

In the event of a uniform distribution, the equation for the amount of health H that results in a kill with X shots and Y certainty is as follows:

H = X * average damage  * (0.2 * (1 - Y) + 0.9)

For example, in order to have 95% certainty of a kill with 5 shots doing 600 damage each, the maximum amount of health the enemy can have is:

H = 5 * 600 * (0.2 * (1 - 0.95) + 0.9) = 3000 * (0.2 * 0.05 + 0.9) = 3000 * (0.01 + 0.9) = 3000 * 0.91 = 2730 health

With this in mind, a few things to note:

  • Superior Bradley will take 4 shots with 95% certainty
  • Tbolt, PL-01, K21 will all take 5 shots with 95% certainty
  • All but the weakest MBTs (and T15s) will take at least 6 shots, probably 7 (or more)

The only times were the ready rack is better than the magazine loader is when you need to deal with isolated squishy vehicles quickly. Given that the magazine loader will be able to kill heavy vehicles faster than the ready rack, and that squishy vehicles very rarely (possibly never) spawn alone, the ready rack doesn't seem like a good fit for PvE where having mediocre  sustained DPM is more valuable that mediocre burst DPM. It might do well in PvP modes where there is a better chance of running into lone squishies, but not in PvE.

 

I don't have the math for the normal distribution, and it's far too late for me to go and work it all out, so I'm going to make a promise to come back to it tomorrow soon. That said, I don't expect that the difference of more consistent damage rolls will make that much of a difference in the number of shots needed to kill common enemies, but that remains to be seen.

MK_Regular

MK_Regular

7 minutes ago, Haswell said:

a gun that deals 600 damage per shot

And just like that, all of my DPMs for different setups are wrong. I was under the impression the gun only did 590 damage per shot, so the listed DPMs are slightly (about 1.67%) lower than the actual in-game values.

 

Also, the probability of securing a kill with the shots you have in the clip is probably one of the biggest considerations if you are thinking about using a ready rack for the burst potential. Because of the ready rack's lackluster DPM, you're going to want to minimize the number of capacity upgrades in favour of upgrades that increase RoF. I don't actually know what the probability distribution is for determining the amount of damage dealt by a damaging hit (I know the range is +/- 10% if you don't have any bonuses or modifiers), but my best guess is that it is based on a either a uniform distribution (equal chance to get any given damage number inside the +/- 10% range) or a normal distribution (probability is weighted so that extremely high/low damage rolls are rarer. In the case of a normal distribution, my best guess would be that the range of probabilities is limited to 3 standard deviations, with anything outside of the 3 standard deviations being automatically assigned to the highest/lowest damage value as if it was only 3 standard deviations above/below the mean (this should not be too noticeable, since only 0.3% of shots fired would be at least 3 standard deviations away from the mean). 

 

In the event of a uniform distribution, the equation for the amount of health H that results in a kill with X shots and Y certainty is as follows:

H = X * average damage  * (0.2 * (1 - Y) + 0.9)

For example, in order to have 95% certainty of a kill with 5 shots doing 600 damage each, the maximum amount of health the enemy can have is:

H = 5 * 600 * (0.2 * (1 - 0.95) + 0.9) = 3000 * (0.2 * 0.05 + 0.9) = 3000 * (0.01 + 0.9) = 3000 * 0.91 = 2730 health

With this in mind, a few things to note:

  • Superior Bradley will take 4 shots with 95% certainty
  • Tbolt, PL-01, K21 will all take 5 shots with 95% certainty
  • All but the weakest MBTs (and T15s) will take at least 6 shots, probably 7 (or more)

The only times were the ready rack is better than the magazine loader is when you need to deal with isolated squishy vehicles quickly. Given that the magazine loader will be able to kill heavy vehicles faster than the ready rack, and that squishy vehicles very rarely (possibly never) spawn alone, the ready rack doesn't seem like a good fit for PvE where having mediocre  sustained DPM is more valuable that mediocre burst DPM. It might do well in PvP modes where there is a better chance of running into lone squishies, but not in PvE.

 

I don't have the math for the normal distribution, and it's far too late for me to go and work it all out, so I'm going to make a promise to come back to it tomorrow. That said, I don't expect that the difference of more consistent damage rolls will make that much of a difference in the number of shots needed to kill common enemies, but that remains to be seen.

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